Gold Price Forecast: Sellers Pause Ahead of Fed Minutes
2024-09-13 News Comments(172)

Gold Price Forecast: Sellers Pause Ahead of Fed Minutes

Gold prices paused their consecutive declines ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes on Wednesday.

The US dollar, along with US Treasury yields, maintained upward space amid China's troubles and Middle East risks.

Gold prices seem to rebound from the key $2,630 support level in the bullish daily RSI.

Gold prices are taking a breather ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meeting minutes, which will be released later on Wednesday.

Gold prices are looking to the Fed meeting minutes for fresh impetus.

In Asian trading on Wednesday, gold prices attempted a lukewarm rebound, ending a five-day consecutive decline trend. Gold traders eagerly await the Fed meeting minutes to assess the magnitude of the next rate cut, especially after Friday's strong US non-farm payroll data eliminated bets for a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut.

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The Fed's September meeting minutes may reveal discussions on the labor market and inflation prospects, as well as discussions on the path forward for interest rates. Recently, Fed policymakers have continued to send dovish messages in their respective forums, despite maintaining an ambiguous stance on the magnitude of the next rate cut.

So far this week, bets on a modest Fed rate cut have weighed on gold prices, as buyers now seem to lack bullish conviction due to increasing concerns over China's economy in response to China's announcement of no further stimulus measures. The Dragon Country is the world's largest gold consumer, and thus, growing economic concerns may suppress Chinese consumers' physical demand for gold.

However, safe-haven gold prices continue to find "buy-the-dip" demand, as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran increase the risk of conflict evolving into a broader regional war.

Reuters reported earlier on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israeli airstrikes have killed two successors of the slain Hezbollah leader, as Israel expands its ground offensive against Iran-backed organizations and deploys a fourth division in southern Lebanon.Before the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, gold prices may draw some trading incentives from the speeches of Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Federal Reserve official Jefferson earlier stated that the decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September was "timely and consistent," aligning with the Fed's dual mandate of achieving a 2% inflation rate and maximizing employment.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

From a short-term technical perspective, the outlook for gold prices remains constructive, although buyers have broken through the key static support level of $2,630 on the daily closing price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a recovery mode while staying above the midpoint, currently around 56. This suggests that gold prices may be poised for a rebound.

On the downside, the $2,619 21-day simple moving average (SMA) must be defended to resume the upward trajectory to historical highs.

Failure to do so will call back sellers, triggering a new round of gold price selling to the threshold of $2,600. Additional downward pressure may target the low of $2,585 on September 20.

On the other hand, gold prices need to close above the psychological level of $2,650 on a daily candlestick to touch the historical high of $2,686 again.

Before that, the strong resistance near $2,670 will come into play.

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