Russian Ruble Plunges, Breaks 100 Rubles Barrier
2024-08-25 News Comments(191)

Russian Ruble Plunges, Breaks 100 Rubles Barrier

Recently, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Russian ruble has continued to rise, breaking through the 100 mark on Monday. Looking back after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict last year, the ruble rapidly depreciated in a short period, but due to Russia's effective response measures, the ruble quickly experienced a V-shaped rebound. This is the first time in more than a year that the ruble exchange rate has fallen below 100 again. When the ruble depreciated sharply last year, the Central Bank of Russia quickly decided to raise interest rates, attracting capital inflows by increasing the interest rate differential, and successfully retaining funds. This measure was later proven to be effective. Now that the ruble is facing the pressure of rapid depreciation again, the Central Bank of Russia has stated that it may take the decision to raise interest rates again at the next meeting. The Central Bank of Russia stated that in the face of the risk of ruble depreciation, raising interest rates is an effective tool that can stabilize the currency market, attract capital inflows, and also help control inflation. The central bank will closely monitor exchange rate dynamics and take appropriate measures when necessary to maintain currency stability. Most importantly, past experience has shown that Russia has mastered the best solution to deal with the conspiracies of Western countries, especially on the basis of Russia's strong economic recovery recently, the Central Bank of Russia is more confident. In April, Russia's GDP broke away from negative growth for the first time, reaching 3.3%. Subsequently, in May and June, Russia's economic growth rate rose to 5.4% and 5.3%, respectively.This series of data indicates that despite being affected by sanctions from Western countries, the Russian economy has still been able to rise against the trend, achieving significant positive growth.

Let's take a look at the reasons for the Russian economy's growth against the odds.

Although Western countries have been exerting pressure on Russia, the country has been steadily developing internal reforms and adopting many positive policies for economic development, which have promoted the development of the domestic market and increased investment.

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In addition, Russia has also benefited from the recovery of global crude oil prices. While exports to Europe have decreased, exports to Asia have increased significantly, and Russia has earned a substantial amount of foreign exchange income through crude oil.

Recently, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar has suddenly depreciated significantly, possibly because Western countries are intentionally trying to suppress the Russian economy by shorting the ruble.

This short-selling behavior can lead to the devaluation of the ruble, making Russia pay higher costs when importing goods, thereby weakening its economic growth momentum.

However, the effectiveness of this approach is a huge question mark.

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Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed an optimistic expectation for Russia's GDP growth rate for the whole year, stating that it may exceed 2%. This news has injected a positive impetus into the Russian economy.

At the same time, the proportion of foreign debt to GDP has also dropped to a historical low of only 15.45%. This indicates that Russia is not dependent on the US dollar in the process of economic development.In fact, Russia has been striving to reduce its dependence on the US dollar and has accelerated its expansion into the Asian market. Particularly, energy trade has fully shifted towards Asia, which is one of the significant initiatives that Russia is actively promoting.

This strategic shift not only diversifies Russia's trade partners but also decreases reliance on the European market.

However, some analysts point out that it is precisely because of Russia's continuous efforts to promote de-dollarization among countries that it has provoked retaliation from the US dollar, leading to the US dollar's continuous suppression of the ruble's exchange rate. This could be a reaction of the US dollar attempting to maintain its global monopoly status.

Despite facing exchange rate instability, Russia remains steadfast in advancing its de-dollarization strategy. After de-dollarization, Russia must seek alternative ways to develop trade and the economy.

In addition to using the Chinese yuan, Russia vigorously promotes the use of its own currency, requires the use of rubles for the settlement of foreign trade, and is also promoting the use of digital currencies.

These efforts will help Russia achieve more stable and sustainable economic development, while the status of the US dollar will be further undermined. If this is a currency war between the United States and Russia, the US dollar may soon face a significant defeat.

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