Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Gold Prices Fall in NY
2024-06-05 News Comments(198)

Fed Rate Cut Expectations Cool, Gold Prices Fall in NY

The most actively traded December gold futures contract on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by $9.3 on October 9th, closing at $2,626.1 per ounce, a decrease of 0.35%.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting revealed that the vast majority of members supported a 50 basis point rate cut; some participants noted that there were reasonable grounds for a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting. Officials unanimously agreed that the larger rate cut approved at the meeting should not be seen as a signal of concern about the economic outlook, nor should it be seen as a sign that the Fed is ready to cut rates rapidly.

Participants believed that the upside risks to the inflation outlook have diminished, while the downside risks to employment are considered to have increased. Participants unanimously agreed that the United States has made some progress in achieving a 2% inflation target, but the inflation rate is still slightly high.

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The minutes stated that some officials believe that a smaller rate cut "may herald a more predictable path to policy normalization." The minutes showed that some officials who supported a larger rate cut hinted that they might also support a smaller rate cut. Prior to last month's meeting, some officials had indicated that they would prefer to start with smaller adjustments and then accelerate if the economy appears to weaken further.

Independent metal trader Tai Wong said: "The market is not moving because a strong employment report may require the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to reassess the situation. This is why gold has not had a big move, and it appears to be falling for the sixth consecutive trading day, but the pullback is not significant." He also noted that the dollar has risen sharply in the past few trading sessions, increasing the downward pressure on gold.

According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by November is 70.4%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29.6%. The probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 65.3%, a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 8.7%; the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points is 0%.

The market is currently awaiting the upcoming release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data to further judge the outlook for interest rates.

On the same day, the price of silver futures for delivery in December rose by 0.42%, closing at $30.73 per ounce.

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